What does the next shock cost you?
5 geopolitical scenarios, priced sector by sector and re-read through your own exposure — with a board brief for each.
5 scenarios across 3 friction levels — Taiwan Shock, Controls Spiral, EU Gap, AI Act, Atlantic Drift — each with a trigger event, a timeframe, a base probability, a stated confidence, value at stake by sector, a three-stage cascade, early-warning indicators, mitigation options and the evidence the estimate rests on.
Set your sector, geography, the dependency that matters most and how you source it: 360 combinations. The lens scales the value at stake within a bounded range and rewrites the first impact and the 90-day action of the board brief around your operating context. It changes the exposure estimate, never the geopolitical assumption — and the page shows the four factors behind every number.
It works at the level of a sector. When you need the same picture drawn against your own business units, with value at stake quantified for each, that is the Scenario Impact Analysis.
- Step 1
Pick a scenario
Five futures, each with a trigger, a timeframe, a base probability and the evidence behind it.
- Step 2
Set your lens
Sector, geography, dependency and sourcing posture. The value at stake and the board brief re-read around it.
- Step 3
Read the board brief
First impact, the 90-day action, the 12-month hedge and the trigger that says escalate.
- Step 4
Compare a second
Two scenarios under the same lens, side by side, then take both out as Markdown.
Probabilities are our estimates and values are directional, built to show where to ask better questions. Evidence last reviewed 10 September 2026.
Taiwan blockade, quarantine, or kinetic escalation disrupts leading-edge wafer output, CoWoS packaging, shipping, and insurance
€2398B
Critical exposure lens ×1.80
Base €1335B · Sector ×1.10 · Geography ×1.10 · Dependency ×1.35 · Sourcing ×1.10 · bounded 0.65–1.85
Leading-edge wafers, CoWoS packaging, and foundry allocation become unavailable or politically rationed.
Accelerator deliveries stall as logic dies, HBM stacks, and advanced packaging cannot be recombined quickly elsewhere.
Premium phones, laptops, networking gear, and edge devices face immediate allocation pressure.
ADAS, infotainment, connectivity, and EV control systems suffer from both chip scarcity and logistics disruption.
Advanced compute, secure communications, sensing, and weapons-system electronics face priority allocation conflicts.
Imaging, diagnostics, robotics, and connected-care platforms lose access to specialist components.
Foundry allocation freezes on leading-edge logic; orders shift to long lead-time qualified alternates.
Rank revenue-critical products by Taiwan wafer, packaging, HBM, substrate, and shipping dependency. Treat industrial automation, controls, and power-electronics suppliers as the first ask.
Fund redesigns that can run on qualified mature-node or non-Taiwan packaged alternatives where performance allows.
Persistent Taiwan route insurance repricing, quarantine language, or TSMC allocation restrictions.
Taiwan logistics and fab output constrained -> advanced logic and packaging allocation freezes
AI accelerators, premium electronics, and connected industrial products miss production windows
Governments ration strategic supply -> accelerated allied fabs, stockpiles, and redesign mandates
- PLA blockade rehearsal activity, quarantine language, or persistent grey-zone maritime disruption
- Shipping, air-cargo, and political-risk insurance repricing around Taiwan routes
- TSMC customer allocation commentary and advanced-packaging lead-time changes
- US, Japan, and EU emergency semiconductor-stockpile or export-priority measures
- Separate product exposure into wafer, packaging, HBM, substrate, and logistics dependencies
- Qualify mature-node fallbacks for control systems and non-performance-critical functions
- Pre-negotiate allocation rights for strategic SKUs and service-level exceptions
- Build redesign pathways that reduce leading-edge and Taiwan-packaging dependency over 12-24 months
TSMC reported that 7nm-and-below technologies remained the majority of wafer revenue in 2025, with 2nm entering high-volume manufacturing in Q4 2025.
Taiwan concentration remains most acute exactly where AI, HPC, and premium electronics demand is growing.
Recent AI-chip supply-chain work identifies CoWoS advanced packaging and HBM, not only logic dies, as binding accelerator constraints.
Scenario impact should model packaging and memory integration, not just foundry wafer starts.
This is one read on one moment. The drift moves weekly — the Tuesday briefing tracks it.
Advisory Briefing
£450Ideally the work begins with an Advisory Briefing. Bring your Scenario Modeler result; leave with priorities, evidence gaps and next actions in writing.
The output of a tool or product, or one of your AI systems. A one-hour discussion with an independent adviser and a written follow-up.
Scenario Impact Analysis
Fee agreed after scopingWhat would this shock do to your revenue and margin? Commission scenarios built around your business units, with value at stake, assumptions and the actions that would protect it.
Custom geopolitical scenario modelling for your industry and geography, with value-at-stake quantified by business unit.